Oscars 2011: analysis

Oscar nominations 2011: safe, yet still capable of surprise. That's my simple conclusion.

Almost inevitably The King's Speech leads the field with 12 noms; however, next up is not The Social Network - it's True Grit with 10 nods. The facebook movie finds itself in joint third place, throwing werewolves at Inception. The Fighter and 127 Hours both outscore Black Swan to boot (seven and six nods respectively versus just five): clearly the elderly members of the Academy have not warmed to the lesbian ballerina psycho-chiller.

Surprises? Nolan not nominated for Best Director, nor Danny Boyle for 127 Hours. Ryan Gosling not mentioned for Blue Valentine (probably because his character is so unlikeable), although his co-star Michelle Williams does make the cut. Having been missed by BAFTA, Jennifer Lawrence gets her first nom for Winter's Bone, as does her supporting co-star John Hawkes. Jeremy Renner's turn in The Town gets its just reward.

At this stage, it's hard to see beyond the stammering monarch. The facebook movie is probably too cold for the Academy, while it's not that long ago that the Coens swept the board. So, predictions in detail:
• The King's Speech takes Film, Director and Actor
• Natalie Portman just holds off Annette Bening for Best Actress
• Geoffrey Rush and Christian Bale slugging it out for Best Supporting Actor
• It's been a while since a kid won an Oscar, so step forward Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit

Oscars noms 2011

Best Picture
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King's Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3”
“True Grit”
“Winter's Bone"

Best Director
“Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
“The Fighter” David O. Russell
“The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
“The Social Network” David Fincher
“True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

Best Actor
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
James Franco in “127 Hours”

Best Actress
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Animated Feature Film
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“The Illusionist”
“Toy Story 3”

Writing (Original Screenplay)
“Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
“The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson; 
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
“Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
“The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
“The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
“127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
“The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
“Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
“True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini

Cinematography
“Black Swan” Matthew Libatique
“Inception” Wally Pfister
“The King's Speech” Danny Cohen
“The Social Network” Jeff Cronenweth
“True Grit” Roger Deakins