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Monday, 6 January 2014

2013 box office review

More so than years previously, 2013 was the year of the sequel: 14 of the top 20 films were either sequels or adaptations of characters and scenarios that already exist as films or in other media. It was also the year that China became the second-largest film market in the world after the US.

More than half of the biggest successes were sequels or prequels; indeed, the top five were Iron Man 3, Despicable Me 2, Hunger Games 2, Fast & Furious 6, and Monsters University.

At $1.2bn, Tony Stark ruled the roost, riding the coat-tails of 2012’s Avengers and the brilliant trailer that ran before the billion dollar Skyfall. The Avengers effect on the Golden Avenger was massive: IM3 took 94% more than IM2; yes, it was helped by IMAX and 3D premium pricing (which IM2 didn’t have), but that isn’t enough to explain such a significant surge.

Stark 3 pulled in nearly one third more at the US box office than its predecessor, and nearly 158% more internationally. As well as increasing its UK take from £20.9m to £36.9m, the outstanding figure for IM3 was the $121.2m from China – IM2 raised just $7m three years previously… Indeed, IM3’s Chinese haul was greater than The Avengers’, and its international total finished just $90m short of The Avengers as well.

For more on China, scroll down.

The country also helped Marvel stablemate Thor with his sequel, just 2.5 years after the first. Thor 2’s worldwide take was 40% greater than the original – suggesting some waning of the post-Avengers effect that drove IM3. In the US, Thor 2 was ‘just’ 11% up on the original as the year ended, but its international take was up 59%.

Perhaps Thor 2’s ‘otherness’, ie it didn’t look like a sequel to the Avengers, held it back somewhat. April 2014’s Captain America 2 should perform slightly better than Thor 2, but wont get near IM3. 

Number two on the worldwide list and on the international list, third at home and top in the UK was Despicable Me 2 – or should that be the Minion movie prologue? With nearly double the original’s take internationally, the sequel finished off with nearly 70% more dollars worldwide at more than $900m. The Minions’ own movie has already been greenlit…

Continuing this theme of sequels outpacing their progenitors, the second Hunger Games movie came out of the gates hard and fast, and by year-end it was not far off the $408m domestic haul of the original. Its strong legs over Christmas means that will pass the original’s domestic total by the middle of January 2014.

Inevitably, the international take jumped ahead of the original: by year-end, it was at circa $420m, up 48%.

It’s worth noting that Lawrence’s awards season success helped drive 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook to $190m worldwide in 2013. And she then ended the year where it had started, in another David O Russell film, American Hustle, generating strong box office and critical plaudits. Can she be stopped? Up next for her is X-Men: Days of Future Past in early summer 2014.

Fast & Furious 6 picked up where Fast Five left off with another surprise international hit. Worldwide, the sixth instalment was 26% more successful than the fifth, falling just shy of $800m, driven by an international take up by a third. The seventh instalment arrives in 2015.

Placing fifth worldwide was Monsters University with north of $700m. A disappointment for Pixar? May be: the would-be monsters took a caning at home from those pesky Minions (and as the year ended, Frozen was catching fast and by the end of the first weekend of 2014 had smashed passed the monsters); and didn’t perform as well as might be expected in the UK, given how well-loved Monsters Inc is; but did nearly treble the original’s international take. Rather than a sequel and given the huge gap since the original (12 years), Monsters University’s performance should probably be viewed like that of a new property.

Does MU’s less-than-gigantic success mean the marketeers in charge of the Finding Nemo sequel have their work cut out?  

Moving on to arguably the toughest marketing job of 2013, The Man of Steel, its $662m total, less than half of which came from the US, was neither fish nor fowl, neither flop nor mega-hit. The film had its issues, like Nolan’s Bat trilogy it’s not for kids, and its performance expectations were out of kilter thanks to the event box office of Bat 2 and 3: the big blue boy scout is not a billion dollar property yet. It remains to be seen whether an established Superman and a new Batman up against each other in 2015 will be a case of two plus two equalling five… or equalling 1.5.

The best performance by a fresh property was Gravity: the one movie of the year that genuinely had to be seen in 3D generated more than $600m. The bravery inherent in the movie’s concept and execution was rewarded with both critical praise and audiences’ awe. Someone at Warner Bros enjoyed a substantial Christmas bonus off the back of this one.

Gravity also marked a great year for Sandra Bullock, following her US summer hit The Heat, which fell just shy of $160m (not bad for a movie fronted by two women). Her box office success must give some hope to other over-40 actresses.

In addition, it was a great year for her Heat co-star Melissa McCarthy, who fronted spring hit Identity Thief ($134m in the US), and also featured in The Hangover Part III ($112m in the US).

Other original material that did well in 2013 was: The Croods with nearly $600m; trad Disney smash hit Frozen, edging passed $550m with circa another $200m to be added in 2014; and leggy, summer sleeper hit Now You See Me with $350m.

And what of the short people? The first part of the Hobbit, edged its over the $1bn post in 2013, taking in another $300m-plus on top of the $685.7m garnered in 2012 (see holdovers below). However, it wasn’t especially well received, which meant that Hobbit 2 arrived with a reduced tailwind, resulting in lower opening weekends in the US and the UK, which then dragged over into following weekends: so where Hobbit 1 closed out 2012 on $685.7m worldwide, Hobbit 2 finished 2013 on $651.5m. I don’t see Hobbit 2 matching its predecessor’s final total of $1,017m, although a final figure north of $900m is certainly possible.

Sequels that weren’t hits
Not all sequels were hits in 2013: step forward, surprise flop of the year Hangover Part III. The concluding part of the trilogy was always going to struggle to match the performance of the second part, but nobody predicted a 40.2% collapse in the franchise’s worldwide BO. It was down 28% internationally, but suffered an ignominious 59% collapse at home.

When people expect to see a comedy that’s what they expect to see: will Hangover Part III have a wider impact on moviemakers? Surely it must reinforce Hollywood’s chronic fear of taking risks?

Ironically, Star Trek Into Darkness also took very few risks – and suffered as a result. May be it was a year too late, but Paramount will feel shortchanged with growth over the original of ‘just’ 21%. Like Hangover, Star Trek fell short at home by 11%.

While the Enterprise nearly doubled its international take, it was starting from a low base, so its result of $238m is small beans. Lots of work to be done then for the third instalment. 

The second Wolverine movie dropped 26% at home, but its international haul was up 46%, thanks mostly to $40.5m from China (the first Wolverine movie four years ago didn’t get a release there), giving it an 11% worldwide boost over the original.

Given X-Men: First Class’s $354m take in 2011, Fox knows it has no divine right to expect Avengers-style box office for Days of Future Past in May 2014, and will need to market the time-travelling mutants hard.

The Smurfs 2 pulled in more than $350m worldwide, but that’s 38% less than the original.
And as for The Lone Ranger (directed by Gore Verbinski and starring Johnny Depp – so I’m counting it as an off-shoot of the multi-billion dollar Pirates franchise), the less said, the better. A miserable $260.5m worldwide from a $215m budget: the ball was definitely dropped there!

Notable holdovers
Many films released towards the end of 2012 performed well in 2013 too. Django Unchained leads this table, bringing in $355.4m worldwide in 2013 alone.

The Hobbit ended 2012 on $685.7m and added another $331.3m in ’13.

Arthouse 3D hit Life Of Pi crossed over assuredly to mainstream audiences and added another $310.2m to the $298.8m it pulled in at the end of 2012.                       

Les Miserables also took in more than $300m in ’13 (including £40.6m and four weeks at number one in the UK), taking it to a total of more than $440m.

Holdovers play a significant role in the UK box office top 20: Life Of Pi added £18.2m to the £10.7m it had acquired in 2012; and the first instalment of the Hobbit raked in another £16.1m on top of 2012’s £35.9m.              

Wreck-It Ralph took a game £20m-plus in 2013, having been released in the US in the autumn of 2012.

The Chinese effect
Iron Man 3 wasn’t the only US film to perform well in China: more than a quarter of Pacific Rim’s entire worldwide booty was reaped from the Chinese - $111.9m to be precise! That’s more than it took in the US.

Other notable performances were Gravity, floating to north of $70m, Fast & Furious burning its way to $66.5m, and Skyfall getting close to $60m.

The real shocks though were Man Of Steel, raking in a super $63.4m, and Star Trek Into Darkness reaching nearly $57m. If two such traditionally US films can perform so well in China, no distributor has an excuse for failure in this market.

China remains keener on 3D re-releases than anywhere else: while there was nothing to rival the eye-popping $250m-plus take of the 3D Titanic in 2012, Jurassic Park 3D hauled in $55m.

The post-Avengers effect helped Thor almost as much as Iron Man: the Thunder God sequel shot to more than $55m – the original was never screened in China!
   
Worldwide
Iron Man 3  $1,211m                     
Despicable Me 2  $918.5m                     
Hunger Games 2  $815.5m
Fast & Furious 6  $788.7m                     
Monsters University  $743.6m
Man Of Steel  $662.8m
Gravity  $662.7m
The Hobbit 2  $651.5m
Thor: The Dark World  $627m                        
The Croods  $585.2m
Frozen  $551.7m
World War Z  $540m
Oz The Great And Powerful  $493.3m
Star Trek Into Darkness  $467.4m                     
The Wolverine  $414.8m
Pacific Rim  $407.6m
GI Joe Retaliation  $375.7m
Django Unchained  $355.4m
Now You See Me  $351.7m
The Hangover Part III  $351m                        

UK 
Despicable Me 2  £47.4m
Les Miserables  £40.7m
Iron Man 3  £36.9m
The Hobbit 2  £32.9m
Hunger Games 2  £31.5m
Monsters University  £30.6m
Man Of Steel  £29.9m
Frozen  £27.9m
Gravity  £27.3m
The Croods  £26.7m
Star Trek Into Darkness  £25.8m
Fast & Furious 6  £25.1m
Wreck-It Ralph  £23.6m
Thor: The Dark World  £19.7m
The Hangover 3  £19.3m
Life Of Pi  £18.2m
The Hobbit  £16.1m
Captain Phillips  £15.9m
The Great Gatsby  £15.7m
Oz The Great And Powerful  £15m
Django Unchained  £15m
  
US
Iron Man 3  $409m                        
Hunger Games 2  $395.5m
Despicable Me 2  $367.8m                     
Man Of Steel  $291m
Monsters University  $268.5m
Frozen  $263m
Gravity  $254.7m
Fast & Furious 6  $238.7m                     
Oz The Great and Powerful  $234.9m         
Star Trek Into Darkness  $228.8m                     
Thor: The Dark World  $202.7m
World War Z  $202.4m
The Hobbit 2  $201.5m
The Croods  $187.2m
The Heat  $159.6m
We’re The Millers  $150.4m
The Great Gatsby  $144.8m
The Conjuring  $137.4m
Identity Thief  $134.5m
Grown Ups 2  $133.7m
  
International
Iron Man 3  $804.6m                     
Despicable Me 2  $551m                        
Fast & Furious 6  $550m                        
Monsters University  $475m
The Hobbit 2  $450m
Thor: The Dark World  $426.3m                     
Gravity  $408m
The Croods  $400m
Hunger Games 2  $393.6m
Man Of Steel  $377m
World War Z  $337.6m
Pacific Rim  $310m
The Wolverine  $282.3m
The Smurfs 2  $276.5m
Life Of Pi  $270.8m
Frozen  $267.3m
Django Unchained  $261.2m
Oz The Great And Powerful  $258.4m
GI Joe Retaliation  $253.2m

The Hobbit  $253m
Sources: Box Office Mojo / BFI

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