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Wednesday 6 January 2016

2015 box office review

2015 was a year of extreme performances at the worldwide box office: five films pulled in more than $1bn, with the year bookended by two films out-performing all expectations, namely American Sniper and Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Jurassic World was expected to be a big hit, but I'm not sure anyone expected it to be that big: more than $1.6bn worldwide is incredible, including $652.3m in the US and $228.7m in China. Thus, it emerged at the top of the pile, just ahead of Furious 7.

At $1.5bn, the car movie nearly doubled the take of its predecessor, and in so doing was the best performer outside the US, raking in $1.1bn, including $390.9m from China (its single largest territory). It spent four weeks at number one in the US and five weeks at the top in China.

The Avengers sequel came up significantly short of its predecessor in the US ($459m vs $623.4m), and also drifted behind in other key territories, however $240.1m from China ($86.3m for the original) helped Iron Man & Co to post a slight increase in their international haul to $946m ($896.2m for the original). What impact will this have on Captain America: Civil War and the next two Avengers films?

Minions was the fourth movie of the year to cross the $1bn barrier, with $821.3m internationally and $336m in the States. For reference, Despicable Me 2 delivered $368m in the US and $602.7m in 2013.

Star performer
With just a fortnight in play in 2015, Star Wars set about destroying box office records left, right and centre. It finished the year just $300,000 or so away from being the most successful film in the US in 2015! At the time of writing, it's just a few days away from beating Avatar's US record of $760.5m.  Similarly, in the UK, it finished just a weekend's takings behind Spectre as 2015 ended, and then swiftly jumped passed the Bond film, and is set to catch and pass Skyfall's all-time record of £102.9m by 10 January.

Once the dust has settled, it will be intriguing to compare Force Awakens' international performance with the other big hits of 2015: many traditional territories it performed well in, but in some new major markets it did not succeed like its rivals (South Korea, for example, where its has taken just $22.7m against Ultron's $78.3m). Its chance of beating Avatar's worldwide record of $2.8bn seems limited; Force Awakens will need to get close to $900m in the US alone to get close plus an unexpected over-performance in China as well as long, robust legs in its current key markets of the UK, Germany and France (nearly $130m, $73.9m and $61.4m respectively).

Having closed 2015 at $1.3bn, Force Awakens enjoyed a massive New Year weekend, jumping to $1.5bn, so a $2bn-plus total is on the cards if it can pull in $200m-plus in China.

As Boxofficeguru tweeted over the Xmas break, Force Awakens has not yet been seen by as many Americans as Phantom Menace, such has been the inflation of ticket prices since 1999. Using another source, Boxoffice Mojo's inflation-adjusted chart, Force Awakens is only the 21st most popular film of all-time in the US. Indeed, that chart puts Force Awakens at less than 50% as popular as the original Star Wars. Clearly that pattern repeats across all traditional film markets.

As the year closed, Spectre inched ahead of Inside Out to $864.1m, but with no hope of matching Skyfall's $1.1bn haul. Indeed, Spectre fell one third short of its predecessor in the US (only just edging out Ethan Hunt in M:I 5), and 15% behind in the UK (where nevertheless it was the number one film of the year, beating Jurassic World by nearly 50%). Inside Out, the best film among the major BO successes of 2015, pulled in $851.6m, including $356.5m from the US.

Hunger Games goes hungry
The fourth instalment of the Hunger Games ended up being the least successful of the franchise: it inched across $600m worldwide in late December, more than $150m behind the third film, $265m behind the second, and $90m behind the original. However, because of release patterns, it managed four weeks at number one in both the US and the UK. Given the relatively poor performances of the Divergent and Maze Runner franchises, is the YA adaptation trend now dead in the water?

Just inside the worldwide top 10 was the year's happiest film: The Martian, with $595.7m, a record for Ridley Scott. It showed tremendous legs, especially in the US where it had two separate stints of two weeks at number one. Will The Martian begat a new era of positive/happy movies?

Mr Grey took a caning from the critics and finished prematurely in the US, but that didn't stop him from relieving many women of their hard-earned money as he tied up more than $400m internationally, including nearly £35m in the UK.

American Sniper performed in almost the opposite fashion geographically to 50 Shades: opening wide in the US at the start of the year, it performed like a summer event movie and pulled in $348.8m, spending three weeks at number one; however, perhaps misunderstood internationally, it couldn't pass the $200m mark.

Disney's Cinderella, hoping to ape Maleficent's performance in 2014, didn't quite grasp the slipper, coming in at $542.7m worldwide, one third behind the Angelina Jolie-starrer. If Cinders was a disappointment, then Marvel (and ergo Disney) will have been very happy with Ant-Man's $518.6m, including $180m in the US and $105m in China.

San Andreas pulled in less than $500m, making it one of the worst performing disaster flicks for many years, presumably because it did not feature a worldwide disaster.

The top 20 is rounded out by Transylvania 2, Terminator: Genisys ($350m internationally almost saved face as the film flopped in the US), Kingsman (one of the true surprises of the year, taking nearly $300m internationally, and proving effective counter-programming to Mr Grey in the US), the final instalment of The Hobbit (its $393.3m worldwide total in 2015 came almost entirely from international holdovers and a delayed release in China), and Home.

Best of British
There were some significant variances in the UK, first and foremostly The Theory of Everything, which pulled in more than £20m as it rode the wave of excellent reviews and awards glory. Another shock performer was Legend, generating more than £18m.

Also worthy of note is that the UK top 20 is the only list below on which Mad Max: Fury Road makes an appearance. It fell just shy of the cut in the US, international and worldwide: its financial stumbling block was the fact that it failed to secure a release in China, which would surely have brought another $80m at least and spurred it on to $450m worldwide.

Among notable performers in the UK that don't make the list are Paddington taking £9.7m in addition to the £28m it took in 2014, Kingsman and Ant-Man taking more than £16m each, and Shaun The Sheep with £13.7m. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel couldn't match its predecessor, its final haul reaching £15.6m, some £5m short.

What about the flops?
There were some major flops in 2015: most obviously Jupiter Ascending and Fantastic Four. The Wachowski brothers' latest slice of sic-fi nonsense cost nearly $180m and pulled in just $183.9m worldwide. Perhaps they should go back to lesbian noir? The failure of the FF proved even super hero movies can flop, pulling in just $168m but with a cost of $120m. Fox might have done better to hand back the rights to Marvel's first family than make the film.

Michael Mann has long since lost BO lustre, and his Blackhat cost $70m but only hacked its way to $19.5m. Lucky for star Chris Hemsworth that he has Thor, otherwise his 2015 would have been known only for flops (see the In The Heart of the Sea below!).

Also two major sequels failed to perform as expected: Ted 2 and Magic Mike XXL. The originals of each generated $549.4m and $167.2m respectively, but the sequels pulled in just $215.9m and $122.5m respectively. At least XXL cost less than $16m to make.

Failing to be the new Harry Potter, Pan generated just $126.5m, but cost $150m. Perhaps a musical version might have done better?

And proving that not every theme park ride can be a hit movie, Disney's Tomorrowland generated just $209m set against a cost of $190m.

The final flop of the year looked like being Ron Howard's In The Heart of the Sea, which sunk in the US one week before Star Wars was unleashed. Even the presence of Thor in the lead couldn't save it.

But if Hemsworth has got the jitters, then Johnny Depp is really BO poison outside of the Pirates franchise (last seen in summer 2011). Mortdecai cost $60m and got away with just $47.3m.

Oh, and the senior management of Warner Bros must be running scared: their biggest film in 2015 was San Andreas as the studio presided over Jupiter Ascending, Pan, In The Heart of the Sea, and Christmas week-opener Point Break.

Worldwide 
Jurassic World $1,668m
Furious 7 $1,515m
Avengers: Age of Ultron $1,405m
The Force Awakens $1,331m
Minions $1,157m
Spectre $864.1m
Inside Out $851.6m
Mission: Impossible 5 $682.3m
Hunger Games 4 $631.3m
The Martian $595.7m
50 Shades of Grey $570.5m
American Sniper $546.1m
Cinderella $542.7m
Ant-Man $518.6m
San Andreas $473.8m
Hotel Transylvania 2 $461.6m
Terminator: Genisys $440.6m
Kingsman $414.4m
The Hobbit 3 $393.3m
Home $386m

International 
Furious 7 $1,162m
Jurassic World $1,016m
Avengers: Age of Ultron $946m
Minions $821.3m
The Force Awakens $679.2m
Spectre $667m
Inside Out $495.2m
Mission: Impossible 5 $487.3m
50 Shades of Grey $404.3m
The Martian $370.4m
Hunger Games 4 $361.7m
Terminator: Genisys $350.8m
Cinderella $341.5m
Ant-Man $338.4m
The Hobbit 3 $327.2m
San Andreas $318.6m
Big Hero 6 $314.4m
Kingsman $286.1m
Hotel Transylvania 2 $294m
Taken 3 $237.2m

UK 
Spectre £94m
The Force Awakens £87.1m
Jurassic World £64m
Avengers: Age of Ultron £48.3m
Minions £47.1m
Inside Out £39.1m
Furious 7 £38.4m
50 Shades of Grey £34.7m
Hunger Games 4 £28.1m
Home £25.1m
The Martian £23.5m
Cinderella £21.3m
Mission: Impossible 5 £21.1m
The Theory of Everything £20.6m (£802,598 was taken in 2014)
Big Hero 6 £20.1m
Transylvania 2 £19.7m
Legend £18.4m
Taken 3 £17.5m
Mad Max: Fury Road £17.2m
Pitch Perfect 2 £17m

US
Jurassic World $652.3m
The Force Awakens $651.9m
Avengers: Age of Ultron $459m
Inside Out $356.5m
Furious 7 $353m
American Sniper $348.8m
Minions $336m
Hunger Games 4 $269.6m
The Martian $225.3m
Cinderella $201.1m
Spectre $197.1m
Mission: Impossible 5 $195m
Pitch Perfect 2 $184.3m
Ant-Man $180.2m
Home $177.4m
Hotel Transylvania 2 $168.5m
50 Shades of Grey $166.2m
Spongebob Out of Water $163m
Straight Outta Compton $161.2m
San Andreas $155.2m

China 
Furious 7 $390.9m
Avengers: Age of Ultron $240.1m
Jurassic World $228.7m
Mission: Impossible 5 $136.8m
The Hobbit 3 $121.7m
Terminator: Genisys $112.8m
Ant-Man $105.4m
San Andreas $103.2m
The Martian $94.9m
Big Hero 6 $83.5m

Sources: Screendaily, Box Office Guru, BFI, Box Office Mojo

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