Oscars 2016: who should win?

As the Oscar countdown continues, Screendaily asks: who should win? Here are my answers for the big six categories, but remember this is about who should win from the actual nominations.

Best Picture
If one can get passed Carol's omission from the shortlist (and I'm still struggling on that one), one is faced with only three genuine contenders: The Revenant, Spotlight and The Big Short. Let's dispense with the bear attack movie first: great set-pieces, yes, but ultimately a shallow piece of mumblecore shot in awful/challenging conditions; Alejandro is in danger of losing the ground he regained with Birdman - he's becoming a parody of himself again.
That leaves one of the great movies about journalism and a great film about economic collapse. Spotlight's success lies in its restraint, it quietly burns with anger without ever catching melodramatic fire. There's nothing starry about Tom McCarthy's direction or the actors' performances, nothing to distract you from the stark facts it present before you.
The Big Short gets in your face, screaming for attention, throwing shock after shock at you. Given the widespread impact of the US subprime crisis, it's the movie with the most reach. It's arguably the most daring of the bunch, and proves the power of intelligent comedy.
Comparing the two films is difficult, they are such different beasts, but I believe The Big Short should win.

Best Director
If the purpose of the Best Director Oscar is to single out the director as star, then there are just two competitors in this race: Alejandro and George Miller. Each led huge productions in challenging conditions, pushing their cast and crew to the limit. Both wanted to have their cake and eat it, but only of them did consume their concoction. Best Director because he delivered a singular vision and created a new genre is George Miller if I had my way.

Best Actor
Not a great year for Best Actor. Obviously Leo has the momentum, but I really don't think that he was that good. But upon reviewing the rest of the field, he probably is the best of the bunch. I thought Fassbender was better as Macbeth than he was as Steve Jobs, but he was shortlisted for the latter.
Eddie Redmayne was good, but wasn't the best performer in The Danish Girl.
Matt Damon was hugely enjoyable, but it didn't seem like much of a stretch for him.
Bryan Cranston was wonderful in Trumbo, but just maybe the film is a little too traditional.
So it's Leo then.

Best Actress
There is no competition here: Charlotte Rampling should win. End of!

Best Supporting Actor
Mark Rylance has already won nine awards for his performance in Bridge of Spies, including the Bafta, and seems to be the outstanding favourite. However, I'm going to swim against the tide again and state that I don't think he was that good.
It's a weak shortlist, so I'm left with Christian Bale in The Big Short, but that's a pity fuck of a win.

Best Supporting Actress
This is a fight to the death between Alicia Vikander and Rooney Mara. Vikander has been everywhere over the past 18 months, seemingly in every other movie - and until The Danish Girl I wasn't really rating her. However, I thought she came of age as an actress in the gender op drama, stealing the film from Eddie Redmayne.
But the Oscar should go to Rooney Mara for her subtlety in Carol (I'll gloss over the fact that she's in the wrong category!).