Awards season: the crunch

So now we hit the nub of awards season: the National Board Review, followed by the Golden Globes, and then less than 48 hours later the BAFTA noms. Ahead of the Golden Globes, and with a fortnight until the Oscar noms, here’s a look at the box office performance of the leading contenders.

Why does this matter? Well, it’s been many years since some wise soul coined the phrase: “Hollywood loves a winner.” Tree Of Life: great art in many ways, but a snowball’s in hell chance of seeing any action at the Oscars.

So here are the main contenders:

• The Artist: $7.1m… and counting – it’s only playing on 172 screens in the US; still much to play for.
• The Descendants: $43.9m; already waning, but awards would see the distributor add more screens in a flash.
• The Help: $169m; the breakout hit of the year in the US – but dead everywhere else – has long-finished its theatrical run, but both Silence of the Lambs and Hurt Locker proved that a film already on video/DVD can win the Oscar.
• The Ides Of March: $40.9m; liberal critiques of politics don’t sell, but we love them anyway! Substantial re-release likely if it garners Globe wins/Oscar noms.
• Midnight In Paris: $56.4m; by far Woody Allen’s most successful movie in donkey’s years; may be too light too figure much at Oscar, but could yet charm the Globes.
• Moneyball: $75.3m; pretty much spent at the box office, both in the US and the rest of the world – US sports don’t travel well; it will be intriguing to see the impact of a Brad Pitt Best Actor victory at the Globes.
• Hugo: $52.6m – where did it all go wrong? Scorsese’s best film since Goodfellas! 3D as art rather than commerce! Universally loved! With a budget north of $150m, this is a shocker: just $64.5m worldwide. And yet that utter abortion that Scorsese finally won the Oscar for – The Departed – grossed $289.9m. Go effing figure…
• My Week With Marilyn: $10.5m; pretty much spent unless Michelle Williams beings home the Oscar.
• 50/50: $35m; brilliant movie and deserved winner of the best cancer comedy award – if only that was a real award! Still a contender in the Original Screenplay awards: Hollywood loves a cancer survivor!
• Bridesmaids: $169.1m banked and already on DVD. I can’t see Oscar or Globes going for it.
• War Horse: $56.9m; struggling a little with some laudatory reviews and some less than complimentary ones too.
• The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo: $76.9m. What do you know? The Americans do like double anal rape at Christmas! Fincher’s continued flirtation with mainstream success (Benjamin Button and Social Network) continues, but surely this is just a hollow thriller with no awards attraction? Isn’t it?
• Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy: $10.1m. This just went wide in the US last weekend, pulling in $5.5m. Lack of Globes attention will affect it, but BAFTAs and Oscars will help. Could yet be the surprise of the awards season… Or the film most wronged!