Oscar nominations 2012

Oscar has gone crazy! It’s official! The headlines may reveal that Hugo leads The Artist by 11 nominations to 10, but the real story is the omissions and surprise nods.

The highlights among the former are:
• Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy not nominated for Best Film.
• Neither Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin) nor Charlize Theron (Young Adult) for Best Actress.
• Ryan Gosling (The Ides Of March and Drive), Michael Fassbender (the actor of the year, but especially for Shame) and Leonardo diCaprio (for Clint’s J Edgar) not making the Best Actor list.
• None of the cast of Carnage being recognised.
• Neither Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus), Carey Mulligan (Shame and Drive), nor Shailene Woodley (The Descendants) making the Supporting Actress shortlist.
• Albert Brooks, widely rewarded for his performance in Drive, not making the Supporting Actor list.
• Neither Cars 2 nor Tintin making the cut for Animated Film.
• Neither Senna nor Scorsese’s George Harrison study making the cut of for the Documentary category.

Among the surprises are:
• The poorly reviewed Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close making the Best Film and Best Supporting Actor (for Max von Sydow) lists.
• The Tree Of Life being recognised for Film, Director and Cinematography.
• Rooney Mara (rightly) getting a nom for Dragon Tattoo.
• Demian Bichir getting on the Best Actor list.
• Nick Nolte making the cut on Supporting Actor for Warrior (this is probably the most leftfield nom this year).
• Both Margin Call and A Separation being nominated for Original Screenplay.
• A Cat In Paris and Chico & Rita getting on the Animated shortlist.

And what of 2011’s most commercially successful films? The Harry Potter finale picked up three craft/tech noms; ditto Transformers 3.

If we assume that the only Oscars that persuade people to see a (English-speaking) film are the major ones (Film, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, and Adapted Screenplay), then the field looks like this:
• Albert Nobbs: 2
• The Artist: 5
• Beginners: 1
• A Better Life: 1
• Bridesmaids: 2
• The Descendants: 4
• Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close: 2
• The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo: 2
• The Help: 4
• Hugo: 3
• Margin Call: 1
• Midnight In Paris: 3
• Moneyball: 3
• My Week With Marilyn: 2
• A Separation: 1
• Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy: 2
• The Tree Of Life: 2
• War Horse: 1
• Warrior: 1
Now that’s more representative the state of play! It’s The Artists versus The Descendants.

OK, money on the table time: of the top 10 categories, who will win each?
Animated Film: Rango

Foreign Film: A Separation

Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants

Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris

Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help

Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Actress: this is a three-way fight between Viola Davis, Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams; each has factors in their favour – Davis’s character suffered in the most commercially successful ‘serious’ Oscar nominee, Streep’s performance is freshest in the mind, and Williams delivered probably the best performance as a Hollywood star; I’m going with Williams.

Actor: this is a showdown between Clooney and Dujardin; the former is an old school star while the latter is someone pretending to be an old school star; the latter leaps off the screen, the former slowburns; the former has a Supporting Actor Oscar at home for Syriana and two Best Actor noms to his name, the latter is a new face; I think Hollywood will reward its own, so step up George.

Director: if it’s The Artist’s night, Hazanavicius will take this, but in bringing ‘art’ to 3D, Scorsese must be considered his most serious rival; the outcome could depend on momentum – something Hugo hasn’t got, so it’s Michael Hazanavicius.

Film: the big one is a battle royale between The Descendants and The Artist; as with the previous category, The Artist is the one with the momentum; I’m so confident of my prediction here that I will buy a drink for all my work colleagues if the following film doesn’t win: The Artist.