It’s the start of the year, so in the movie world that means
awards season.
The Golden Globe nominations were announced in December, but
everything really kicks off on 3 January with the Producers Guild of America.
Key dates thereafter are the Bafta noms on 9 January, the Oscar noms the
following day, and the Golden Globes themselves on 13 January.
The big two present their awards on 10 and 24 February.
PGA noms: 3 January
DGA noms: 8 January
Bafta noms: 9 January
Oscar noms: 10 January
Golden Globes: 13 January
PGA: 26 January
SAG: 27 January
DGA: 2 February
BAFTA: 10 February
Oscars: 24 February
The clear favourites are beginning to emerge:
Film
This looks like a three-way fight between Steven Spielberg’s
Lincoln, Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty and Tom Hooper’s Les Mis.
I half-expect that nobody will do the Film-Director double
this year at the Oscars. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bigelow scooped the Director
award, but Lincoln seals the big one.
The again there’s the big if: if the Academy falls for Les
Mis, it could fall for it hard.
And that’s it: other films will get nominated but will not
get a look in.
Director
At this stage it looks like a battle royale between Steven
Spielberg and Kathryn Bigelow. The latter has made the more controversial film,
but, with wide release in January, it is fresher in voters’ minds. Bigelow won
relatively recently for The Hurt Locker, so Oscar may not want to reward her
again so quickly. Spielberg on the other hand hasn’t won since Saving Private
Ryan…
The dark horse is Tom Hooper, who won only two years ago for
The King’s Speech. If Oscar is in a musical mood, his direction of Les Mis
(which, by the time Oscar voting closes, may be the most successful Oscar
contender at the box office) may get him the win.
Actor
There is one clear favourite: Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s up for
the Golden Globe and has already won eight times for his performance as
Lincoln.
Again, there must be the big proviso: if Oscar is in musical
mood, Hugh Jackman could do it for Les Mis.
And then there’s the disabled vote: Oscar loves actors in
disabled roles, so John Hawkes in The Sessions and Bradley Cooper in Silver
Linings Playbook could be recognised.
Unlikely that Denzel Washington will win for a third time with
Flight, even though a number of critics have described his performance as the
best of his career.
Similarly, Joaquin Phoenix may be lucky to garner a
nomination for his outstanding performance in The Master as all the
scientologists within Hollywood will not vote for him.
Actress
The most successful actress in awards season so far is
Jessica Chastain with nine victories to her name for Zero Dark Thirty. She’s
got one previous nomination to her name and would be a deserving winner.
Nevertheless, the controversy that will swamp the film as the Oscar deadline
gets closer could cost her victory.
Who then will emerge? Marion Cotillard, a previous Oscar
winner, is excellent in Rust And Bone, where she of course plays a woman who
loses her legs…
Jennifer Lawrence has already won three times for Silver
Linings Playbook, but I think she will need to be a happy with a nomination.
From the trailer, Helen Mirren appears to get all the best
lines in Hitchcock, and could score a surprise: being nominated while her male
lead in the titular role fails to do so.
Naomi Watts has spent several years away from Hollywood and
acting and only achieved success late: a nomination for The Impossible is
deserving, but she’s got no wins to her name so far for that performance.
Meryl Streep can’t be ignored, and neither can Maggie Smith
for Quartet or Judi Dench for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Supporting Actor
A category with no clear favourite! However, the list of
contenders reads like a list of great character actors:
- Alan
Arkin for Argo
- Javier
Bardem for Skyfall
- Leonardo
DiCaprio for Django Uchained
- Robert
DeNiro for Silver Linings Playbook
- Philip
Seymour Hoffman for The Master
- Tommy
Lee Jones for Lincoln
- Christoph
Waltz for Django Unchained
There’s also a chance for Tom Wilkinson and Bill Nighy in
Marigold Hotel.
Hoffman will be compromised for playing an echo of L Ron
Hubbard, the scientology founder, so I think Arkin might just do it, especially
as he’s playing a Hollywood producer.
Supporting Actress
In theory, there is one outstanding favourite for this;
she’s so far ahead of the rest of the field that the rest need not show up. I’m
talking, of course, about Anne Hathaway.
While I love her performance of Selina Kyle in The Dark
Knight Returns, Oscar is set to fall for her bravura showcase in Les Mis.
However, while she’s the joint-most successful in the
supporting actress awards season race with three wins, there are others that
could yet upset her run to the flag,
Most notable is Amy Adams, with three major wins behind her
for The Master and three previous noms in this category, this may be her time.
Also hard to discount is Sally Field with two major wins
already for Lincoln.
Helen Hunt has only one major victory to her name for The
Sessions.
Judi Dench and Maggie Smith could split any British vote for
their roles in Skyfall and Marigold Hotel.
Nicole Kidman made the Golden Globe shortlist for Paperboy,
but that will be a long shot for Oscar.
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